Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply as the U.S. said no Iran talks were planned and disputed the emerging Omani framework. Confirmed crossings dropped nearly 20% while Washington rejected parts of an Oman-Iran plan and the 60-day negotiating period expired. Kpler counted 95 confirmed strait crossings in the latest week, a 19.5% decline.
Only three vessels crossed Sunday, all using the Iranian-designated route; none used the Omani routes. Trump said the strait was open and operating and that U.S. port blockades remained in effect, despite the reduced traffic. The phrase open and operating is a political characterization, while the Kpler count is an observed traffic measure. Both can be true in a narrow sense, but the fall in crossings shows the route is not functioning normally.
The 60-day U.S.-Iran negotiating period expired without a comprehensive agreement or extension. Egypt said the Iran-Oman arrangement could create a route back to U.S.-Iran negotiations. Iran continued to condition broader reopening on sanctions relief, asset releases and an end to military operations. The negotiating deadline matters because it removes a defined diplomatic interval without replacing it. That does not prove talks are impossible; it means no public framework currently limits how either side responds to the next maritime incident.
Hormuz carried about one-fifth of globally traded oil and gas before the current war disrupted passage. Ship counts capture observed crossings but not every dark transit or commercial decision to delay departure.
The U.S., Iran and Oman describe the waterway through different legal and security frameworks. The current evidentiary limit is that traffic data can be revised, and neither the U.S. nor Iran had published a mutually accepted negotiating text.
The next factual record will come from daily vessel-transit data and insurance rates and a formal Iran-Oman statement or renewed U.S.-Iran channel. Until those records appear, the account remains bounded by the cited reporting, measurements and explicitly attributed statements.